منابع مشابه
Financial innovation and corporate default rates
Measured default rates are currently at historically low levels. Compared to a historical average of 2%, Moody’s 12-month trailing corporate default rate was 0.50% in September 2007. Even more striking, the default rate had fallen since January 2007 whereas some measures of economic fundamentals had worsened over this period of time. For example, the equity implied volatility had more than doub...
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The paper attempts to provide forecast methodological framework and concrete models to estimate long run probability of default term structure for Hungarian corporate debt instruments, in line with IFRS 9 requirements. Long run probability of default and expected loss can be estimated by various methods and has fifty-five years of history in literature. After studying literature and empirical m...
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In this paper we formulate a corporate bond (CB) pricing model for deriving the term structure of default probabilities (TSDP) and the recovery rate (RR) for each pair of industry factor and credit rating grade, and these derived TSDP and RR are regarded as what investors imply in forming CB prices in the market at each time. A unique feature of this formulation is that the model allows each fi...
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Default risk is the uncertainty surrounding a firm's ability to service its debts and obligations. Prior to default, there is no way to discriminate unambiguously between firms that will default and those that won't. At best we can only make probabilistic assessments of the likelihood of default. As a result, firms generally pay a spread over the default-free rate of interest that is proportion...
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Using a local adaptive Forward Intensities Approach (FIA) we investigate multiperiod corporate defaults and other delisting schemes. The proposed approach is fully datadriven and is based on local adaptive estimation and the selection of optimal estimation windows. Time-dependent model parameters are derived by a sequential testing procedure that yields adapted predictions at every time point. ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Economics and Finance
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1916-9728,1916-971X
DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v6n8p1